Ravens storyline to watch: With the cold and wind in Buffalo, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen might have to rely on their legs — and they’re the best at doing that at this point in the season. Allen has the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL postseason history (609) and Jackson ranks second (602). But it could be difficult to run against the Ravens’ defense, which has given up 239 rushing yards to QBs this season (fifth fewest), and the Bills, who have given up 306 rushing yards to QBs (11th fewest). — Jamison Hensley
Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills get out of the divisional round for the first time since the 2020 season? Though much of the focus is on MVP favorites at quarterback, limiting running back Derrick Henry will be key. The Bills will have to put up a better performance than they did in a Week 4 loss at Baltimore when Henry ran for 199 yards, the most by any player against the Bills since Sean McDermott became Buffalo’s coach in 2017. This is a much healthier team this time around, with starting linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano and nickel corner Taron Johnson set to play after sitting out the previous meeting. But as defensive tackle DaQuan Jones described Henry, “He’s just a freak of nature.” — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills and Ravens had the exact same point differential in the regular season (plus-157), which was tied for first in the AFC. This is the seventh matchup in postseason history between teams that had the same regular-season point differential, and the first since Super Bowl LII between the Eagles and Patriots after the 2017 season. — ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Jackson will rush at least 12 times for at least 70 yards. Baltimore showed a willingness last week against Pittsburgh to let Jackson run as much as needed in tandem with Henry. I think that will be their game plan for the entire postseason. And the Bills have given up 0.45 EPA per quarterback designed run or scramble, higher than the league average. — Walder
Matchup X factor: Bills safety Taylor Rapp. His ability to run the alleys and tackle in space is critical to limiting the explosive play ability of Henry. Including the playoffs, Henry’s 49 rushes of 10 or more yards are tied for the most in the league with Saquon Barkley. The Bills have to get Henry on the ground when he breaks past the second level. — Bowen
Betting nugget: The Bills have been favored in 42 straight home games, the longest active streak in the NFL. The last time the Bills closed as home underdogs was in Week 17 of 2020 against the Dolphins (+3). Read more. — ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Carl Cheffers has led two of the past four Super Bowl crews and is among a small group of candidates to reprise that role this year in New Orleans. Of note for this game: Cheffers threw only two flags during the regular season for roughing the passer, the fewest in the NFL. — Seifert
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 28, Bills 25
Moody’s pick: Ravens 30, Bills 23
Walder’s pick: Ravens 31, Bills 27
FPI prediction: BUF, 50.3% (by an average of 0.3 points)
