In chess, we would call what the Falcons did last Sunday night against the Washington Commanders a blunder, and one which was brutal enough to put them on their heels and on the verge of being checkmated.
Atlanta had full control of their own destiny after Dallas upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football in Week 16, but they have proceeded to turn right back around and bungle it in a game where a number of unforced errors, from DeAngelo Malone’s brutal third and long penalty to Raheem Morris’ disgraceful clock mismanagement, left them in a position to miss the playoffs yet again.
Now, with their backs to the wall, the playoff chances for the Falcons sit at a meager 15% (playoffstatus.com), as they have all but handed Tampa Bay the division.
For the last time this regular season, let’s take a look at the circumstances surrounding the Falcons if they beat the Panthers in Week 18, as well as looking at the scenario if they lose.
If the Falcons win
They will miraculously win the NFC South with a 9-8 record if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffer a home defeat at the hands of a very bad New Orleans Saints team that is missing some key pieces. This is the only clinching scenario for Atlanta, as it couldn’t be more black and white at this point.
Atlanta will have their first season above .500 since 2017, but if Tampa does not also lose they will not have much to show for it, as the memories of a blown 6-3 start will far outweigh anything else from this year.
The worst draft slot a team can have while missing the playoffs is pick 18. Atlanta is currently slotted to have the 17th pick. They will all but guarantee that draft slot, and could fall to 18th if Tampa Bay triumphs and Seattle loses to the Rams.
If the Falcons lose
They will have invested heavily in free agency, returned all of their major contributors from last season, had some pretty fortunate injury luck overall and sold their fanbase a bill of goods just to end up with one victory more than they had in a season which was predominantly started by Desmond Ridder at quarterback, and another which was predominantly started by Marcus Mariota at quarterback.
It goes without saying, but they will be eliminated from any post season contention no matter what happens in the Tampa Bay game. The Bucs will clinch the NFC South for the fourth consecutive season.
In a best case scenario looking at draft positioning, the Falcons can realistically pick as high as 13th if the Cowboys, Cardinals, Dolphins and Bengals all win this weekend.
