The Browns’ win probability rarely crossed over 50 percent during Monday’s matchup, but it did move in Cleveland’s direction during a critical moment. After Jameis Winston found Elijah Moore for a third-and-12 conversion at the two-minute warning, Cleveland’s win probability jumped to 53.1 percent, according to ESPN.
Holding a first-and-10 at their own 42-yard line, the Browns only needed 20 yards to move themselves to the edge of field-goal range — and any additional yardage would’ve made that field goal less difficult.
As the Broncos lined up for the ensuing play — already having given up nearly 500 yards — Denver’s chances of earning a win were far from certain.
But cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian ended the uncertainty, as he undercut another pass for Moore, got up off his back and raced for a clinching 44-yard pick six. After the play, the Broncos held a two-possession lead with less than two minutes remaining and saw their win probability skyrocket to 99.6 percent.
In a back-and-forth game, it was fitting that the game-changing moment didn’t come until the final moments.
Cleveland wide receiver Jerry Jeudy posted the most receiving yards by a player against the Broncos in team history, while quarterback Jameis Winston posted the second-most passing yards the Broncos have allowed.
Denver’s defense, though, made a slew of big plays despite the yardage totals the group allowed.
Outside linebacker Nik Bonitto recorded a pick six near the end of the first half, and then McMillian sealed the game with another. With the Browns pushing down the field one last time, inside linebacker Cody Barton picked Winston off in the end zone.
The final two interceptions — both of which came in the final two minutes of the game — gave the Broncos the edge in the turnover battle and helped Denver improve to 8-1 in games in which its defense earns a takeaway.
