The new COVID XEC variant was first found in June in Berlin, Germany. (Photo by Christian … [+]
XEC may sound like some kind of rock band, cryptocurrency or male enhancement supplement, but the XEC COVID-19 variant is something that you probably don’t want to have anywhere near you. It’s the latest COVID-19 variant to gain attention because it’s been spreading around the world. And a big question after the so-called “summer of COVID” is whether the XEC variant is going to fuel the next COVID-19 surge this fall or early winter.
This past summer earned the “summer of COVID” moniker since it saw what appeared to be the biggest summer COVID-19 surge since July 2022. That’s based on wastewater data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, because these days that’s all we really have to estimate the number of cases that may have occurred. Since many people have basically stopped getting tested for COVID-19 and those who are testing themselves often don’t report those results to others, any count of COVID-19 cases is probably a substantial undercount of the actual number.
The summer surge was led by the so-called FLiRT variants, mainly KP.3.1.1 and KP.3. It also didn’t help that the majority of people were flirting with catching the virus by not really taking any precautions against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). For example, face mask use appears to have gone the way of skinny jeans, with far fewer people wearing them in public. That’s even though studies have clearly shown that N95 respirators can decrease SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
The early fall may be currently seeing a fall in cases after the summer surge, which probably began in early June. But the emphasis here is on the words “may be.” That’s because after four years of COVID-19, the U.S. still doesn’t have a reliable surveillance system in place that can more accurately track how and where the SARS-CoV-2 is moving.
COVID-19 certainly has not gone away. Vaccination and prior exposure have indeed substantially reduced the risk of more severe COVID-19 outcomes compared to the first two years of the pandemic by building immune protection in most people. But the SARS-CoV-2 can still land some people in the hospital. There’s also the looming risk of developing long COVID whenever you get infected with the SARS-CoV-2.
Plus, the SARS-CoV-2 keeps mutating. And mutating and mutating and mutating. As a result, new variants keep emerging. While many of these variants prove to be inconsequential, every several months a new more consequential one seems to rear its spiky head. The latest is the aforementioned XEC variant. The XEC is basically the love child of the KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 COVID-19 variants. It’s yet another Omicron variant because, OMG, we’ve been stuck on different Omicron descendants since late November 2021.
The XEC was first detected in Berlin, Germany, in June. But what happened in Berlin didn’t stay in Berlin. This ball of not fun has already appeared in 27 countries across Europe, North America and Asia. That has included popping up in 12 states in the United States so far, according to Scripps Research’s “Outbreak.info” web page. And while it’s not the dominant variant of COVID-19 yet, it does appear to have a fitness advantage over other circulating variants.
The XEC is basically the love-child of the KS.1.1 and KP.3.3 COVID variants. (Illustration: Getty)
Now, a fitness advantage doesn’t mean that this variant of the SARS-CoV-2 wears tights and can do more glute bridges. It means that for some reason it can spread faster or more readily than other variants. The reason is not clear yet. Perhaps those infected with this variant may shed more of the virus. Maybe the XEC variant can get into cells more easily. Or it could be that this variant is better at evading existing immune protection from either vaccination or previous infection. More data and studies are needed to determine which of the above may be the case. But the fact that the XEC variant seems to be spreading fairly rapidly over other variants suggests that it does indeed have some kind of fitness advantage.
More data and studies are also needed to determine whether the XEC variant is more or less likely to cause severe COVID symptoms and outcomes than current and previous variants. Again, this will be difficult to tell without more widespread testing and a more comprehensive surveillance system than what’s in place now.
The updated Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines that are now available target the KP.2 variant, and the updated Novavax one targets the JN.1. Since the XEC is not worlds apart from these targeted strains that were prominent earlier this year, the updated vaccines should provide at least some protection against the XEC variant. Exactly how much remains to be seen.
While it’s not yet clear whether the XEC versus some other newer variant will lead the way, there’s a very good chance that yet another COVID-19 surge will begin in the coming months. Over the past several years, winter surges have started in mid-to-late November. That’s not surprising because November is when the weather turns significantly colder and drier and many more activities move indoors. Plus, there’s all that holiday travel that begins around Thanksgiving that can further fuel the spread of viruses.
But don’t assume that COVID activity won’t pick up again before November. And don’t expect any forewarning right before the next surge, given, once again, the lack of a more reliable and comprehensive surveillance system and the fact that political leaders may be avoiding the “C” word before the elections. So, you may want to be XEC careful yourself and take precautions if you don’t want to get COVID-19 and, potentially, long COVID.
