No Week 1 game can be said to be a truly must-win contest, especially not an out-of-conference one. What this game is, however, is a compelling early test for these Atlanta Falcons, and one where a victory would give them an early leg up on the NFC South and a banked win before they play arguably their toughest stretch of the season.
Will the Falcons win? Our staff weighed in before today’s game.
Falcons 24 – Steelers 17
The Steelers are never an easy out, and the Falcons have been particularly bad at defeating them since their inception. Atlanta has won just two games all-time against Pittsburgh, but I think they get their third on Sunday. The vibes around that team are not good coming out the preseason, with the Steelers settling on Russell Wilson as their starter. Russ is still good at avoiding turnovers, but he’s no longer a dynamic presence at quarterback and has become extremely sack-prone over the past two seasons. With the Steelers already reeling from multiple OL injuries (and a poor unit to begin with), there is a tremendous opportunity for Atlanta’s new-look defense to wreak havoc.
Atlanta’s offense should be significantly improved from top-to-bottom with Kirk Cousins under center, all five starters on the offensive line returning, and hopefully better playcalling from rookie OC Zac Robinson. All that being said, the Steelers defense is still very good—particularly in the front-seven. I’m expecting a fairly conservative gameplan from Atlanta targeting Pittsburgh’s weakness in the slot and in linebacker coverage with plenty of short-to-intermediate passes to Kyle Pitts and Ray-Ray McCloud. If Atlanta can limit mistakes, grind out some long drives and keep the pressure on Pittsburgh to keep up on the scoreboard, the Falcons can come out of Week 1 with a hard-fought victory. —Kevin Knight
Falcons 20 – Steelers 14
A close game defined by big moments for both defenses and a small handful of highlight reel plays for each offense, with the superior talent Atlanta can bring to bear on that side of the ball making the difference.
As good as Mike Tomlin is as a coach and as potent and opportunistic as this Steelers defense is, there are weaknesses the Falcons can attack, from an undrafted rookie nickel cornerback to a Steelers linebacker corps that isn’t quite up to their usual standards. On the other side of the ledger, the Falcons bring a healthy and improved defense to bear on an offense that doesn’t exactly have an inspiring amount of talent on hand, and will likely require time for Arthur Smith to coax improved performance out of, assuming he can do so.
This feels like a terrific Week 1 test for both sides of the ball. If the defense is as good as it looks on paper, they ought to be able to hold the Steelers under 20 points without breaking much of a sweat. If the offense is as good as it looks, they should be able to come up with the necessary scoring drives to pull off a victory. I’d like to see a blowout to kick things of, but given the history between these two teams and the number of unknowns for Atlanta, I’ll just take the win. —Dave Choate
Falcons 20 – Steelers 17
You’re going to get a physical football game whenever you face a team like the Steelers. The idea that the Falcons, of all teams, given their history, could win such a matchup is telling about where expectations are entering 2024 under new head coach Raheem Morris. The reality was that these were the types of games that the Arthur Smith-led Falcons were built to win but never consistently did during his three-year tenure. Now, the expectations are that Morris will finish what Smith started.
The huge addition of Judon to the defensive line, alongside Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata should wreak havoc on a young Steelers offensive line that will be missing their starting left guard Isaac Seumalo. If so, that spells trouble for Smith’s propensity to lean on the run game as a play-caller.
The Falcons will face their own challenges against a physical Steelers defensive front, headlined by T.J. Watt, but they should have moderate success moving the ball. Their biggest obstacle will be finishing in the red zone as they’ll face one of the NFL’s consistently stingiest red-zone defenses. I think they’ll do enough to get the job done when all is said and done and start this Morris Era off right. —Aaron Freeman
Falcons 20 – Steelers 10
A two-score win may seem like I’m discounting how formidable this Steelers opponent will be, but that’s far from the case. This game will come down to who plays the cleanest; both defenses will challenge these offenses and be stingy with points.
The Steelers must overcome injury and inexperience across their entire offensive line, a statement that sounds like music to Jarrett, Onyemate, and company’s ears. Russell Willson, Jaylen Warren, and Najee Harriss combined for 16 fumbles in 2023, and in a game like this one, a single turnover could likely be the difference maker. However, the Steelers’ defense will present its own challenges. Cam Heyward and Keanu Benton will look to make life difficult for the trio of Bergeron, Dalman, and Lindstrom. TJ Watt and his relentless effort on the edge will likely be the biggest challenge of the day. Still, Atlanta can mitigate that by effectively running the football and getting it out of Kirks’s hands as quickly as possible.
The Steelers offense is dealing with too many unknowns and injuries for me to pick them to win. Atlanta won’t look like a well-oiled machine yet, but it’s more likely the Steelers beat themselves in this matchup. The Falcons will win with the help of two turnovers, which they convert into points. —Tre’Shon Diaz
